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Turkey, Russia, Syria

We've reached a new tipping point. Whether this will be localized to merely Turkey, or if it will involve numerous states (i.e., WWIII), is probably up to NATO's response to whatever Russia decides to do about Turkey.
The nation of Turkey's been acting as a spoiler these past few years. A dangerous, and stupid, wildcard. It's been flooding Europe with refugees, and continually allowing radical Syrian militants safe haven within their borders.
Russia probably won't attack Turkey, militarily, but instead economically. A not insignificant amount of Turkey's energy needs are met by Russian suppliers.
NATO needs to find a way of appearing to have Turkey's back, while also burning Turkey's fingertips. If NATO backs Turkey unconditionally, then we're probably in for a cold and dark winter.
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  1. UU407724 November 2015 at 12:19

    Turkey shoots down a Russian fighter/bomber that was likely in legal Syrian airspace to protect its al Nusra (anti-Assad) rebels and runs crying to NATO like a child that broke a window and is blaming on other kids.

    If NATO still has any backbone they'll spank Turkey like a naughty child. Otherwise, this could be trouble.

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